The Sydney Morning Herald has declared the party’s over, as the mining boom comes to an end. Unemployment is high, the deficit is growing and commodity prices are falling. “They bungled the boom,” writes Peter Hartcher of successive federal governments. “Australia has truly squandered a unique opportunity, one that it has never enjoyed before and that no developed country has enjoyed.” But there is one bright spot amongst all this gloom.
The latest Manpower Employment Outlook Survey has found small businesses (between 10 – 49 employees) have the strongest employment intentions for the first quarter of 2015. Whether a reflection of falling confidence at the big end of town, or continuing resilience of smaller enterprises, small businesses registered a net employment outlook of +12% in early 2015. For the same period, medium-size employers (50 – 249 employees) anticipate some hiring opportunities with an outlook of +7%. But lower employment growth is forecast with +3% and +2% for large businesses (250+ employees) and micro businesses (less than 10) respectively.
The quarter-over-quarter hiring prospects do weaken in all four business size categories, but micro- and large-size employers continue to show the weakest intentions. Taking a year-over-year perspective, the Manpower Outlook reported small business employment intentions are four percentage points stronger, but hiring plans weaken by three and two percentage points in the medium- and large-size categories, respectively.
The strongest hiring prospects are reported in the Northern Territory and Queensland, where employers report net employment outlooks of +15% and +14%, respectively. Steady hiring activity is expected in Tasmania and New South Wales, but employers in South Australia forecast a decline in payrolls, reporting an outlook of -2%. The strongest hiring prospects are reported for the finance, insurance and real estate sector with a net employment outlook of +15%. Steady job gains are expected in the public administration and education sector and the services sector. Transportation and utilities sector employers anticipate some hiring opportunities, reporting an outlook of +8%. The weakest sector outlook of +2% is reported by manufacturing sector employers. Do your hiring plans match with these outlooks?
How do you think the “end” of the mining boom might affect your business?
