A couple of months into 2014, tech-heads and investors could have been forgiven for believing that a new dawn for disruptive technology had arrived. Bitcoin, the world’s leading cryptocurrency, had popped above $800 on January 2 and remained there for over a month. Tesla, the flagship for electric cars, was on a remarkable bull run that would see its share value increase over $100 before February was over. 3D Systems and Stratasys, the two biggest 3D printer manufacturers, had enjoyed a fantastic 2013 and began the year worth more than ever before. Oculus Rift was proving that new technology – in this case, virtual reality – can capture media and consumer imagination whilst remaining independent.
A year on, and things aren’t quite so rosy. For bitcoin the $800 level proved all-too short lived, and the collapse of Mt Gox in February marked the beginning of a major correction back to the $400-450 range. Despite a mid-year rally, bitcoin spent the last three months of the year worth even less – $300-350 – a value it retains to this day. Unable to shake negative views on its legitimacy, and rocked by more problematic exchanges throughout the year, bitcoin ended up the worst performing investment for 2014: under performing even the rouble.
For Tesla, the bull run to $250 in February proved to be as far as investors were willing to drive the stock. A brief period in September apart, Elon Musk’s company has seen every move above $250 swiftly curtailed, and began2015 worth around $220. That is still an upward trajectory for the year, and Tesla did not have a disastrous 2014 by any means. But after growing 350% in ten months from May 2013, falling 10% in the following ten is far from ideal. Key models were delayed, production targets revised down and Tesla failed to match Mr Musk’s own lofty ambitions.
3D printing, too, was a tale of inflated hype and expectations that were not met. 3D Systems and Stratasys both followed a successful year on the stock markets with an absolute reversal, spending 2014 steadily retracing all of 2013’s gains. The problems arose as the much vaunted usefulness of 3D printing to small and large businesses as well as individual consumers failed to materialise, and analysts instead predicted a tipping point for the tech five years down the line.
For Oculus Rift 2014 was a year of progress, but perhaps not the progress many of its fans were hoping for. After acting as the darling of the video games community and remaining independent for several years, Oculus Rift was bought by Facebook for $2 billion. The move triggered a swathe of negativity with fears that the technology’s potential to disrupt had been drastically lessened. 2014 was the year that virtual reality was adopted into the mainstream. Futurologists are not giving up yet, though, and in truth the picture is not all doom and gloom.
Disruptive technology needs to address the problems that arose throughout the previous 12 months to regain relevancy. But bitcoin has also seen a number of hugely powerful merchants accept the currency – including Microsoft, Dell and PayPal – as well as a record levels of transactions and US exchange growth. Tesla has a production problem, which Mr Musk has openly addressed and has plans to address. It is probably a couple of positive earnings announcements away from storming the stock markets once more.
3D printing also saw some major backers take a fresh look at the technology. Amazon and Royal Mail are amongst the big brands that announced 3D print and delivery services to consumers, hoping to make a name for themselves in a sector that is still seen as capable of huge growth. Like Oculus Rift, this may not be a step away from the existing status quo of the technology industry, but it is positive for the widespread adoption of new platforms.
The next 12 months, then, are pivotal for adopters of disruptive tech and for those interested in CFD trading services Australia. After a stumble in 2014, investors and consumers should start to see a clearer picture of which developments are still set to change the world, and which may fall by the wayside.
